Key events
Yesterday, players from the Serena Williams Group were in action as Elena Rybakina came from behind to stun Iga Swiatek, becoming the first player to book her spot in the semi-final. Amanda Anisimova also came back against Jessica Pegula and will battle it out for the second sem-final spot against Swiatek on Wednesday.
Gauff has had an extremely successful start to her career, winning two slams on two different surfaces at the age of 21. But her serve – specifically her second serve – is holding her back. The world No 3 hit three double faults in a row against her compatriot Pegula in her first match and has spent the season battling against her form. Here is Tumaini Carayol’s verdict:
On the court, she possesses many assets. Her defensive skills and athleticism are peerless, her two-handed backhand is sublime and her intelligence on the court is complemented by a well-rounded game. While her forehand can be inconsistent, all evidence suggests that the quality of her second serve will probably determine just how far she can go in her career. Gauff leads the tour for success in return games, winning 46.8% of her return games this year, and she has won a respectable 68.6% of first‑serve points, which places her at No 12 in the top 50.
The problems begin with her second serve. Gauff is the sixth-worst performer in the top 50 for second‑serve points won this year. Excluding double faults, however, she has won the second‑highest proportion of second‑serve points on the tour. If she can lower her double‑fault count, her results will improve significantly.
Read the full analysis below, including how the hiring of the tennis biomechanics expert Gavin MacMillan has helped the American.
Preamble
It is do or die for Coco Gauff, the defending champion, and Jasmine Paolini in the Stefanie Graf Group at the WTA Finals. Both players lost their first matches and need a win today if they want any chance of progressing to the semi-finals. The two last played each other in China during the semi-finals of the Wuhan Open. Gauff beat Paolini before winning the title, her third WTA 1000 singles title. But their head-to-head record is at an even 3-3 and before Wuhan, Paolini had won their last three matches, including at Cincinnati.
Later on Jessica Pegula and Aryna Sabalenka, who beat Gauff and Paolini respectively, will face off. Their head-to-head is more skewed in Sabalenka’s favour, the world No 1 winning eight of their 11 matches, including at the 2024 and 2025 US Open. But the American will take some solace in that she beat Sabalenka in Wuhan last month. Can she repeat the feat in Riyadh?
Gauff v Paolini is set for 2pm GMT/9am EST while Sabalenka v Pegula is slotted for 3.30pm GMT/10.30am EST. Join me for all the action and, as always, send me your thoughts, questions and predictions via email.
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