Introduction: UK’s fiscal repair job not complete after budget
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
It’s the morning after the budget, a time when the real story behind the fiscal event often emerges.
And today, the Resolution Foundation is warning that the job of repairing the UK’s public finance is “far from complete”, and that major tax rises and cuts to public services are coming down the line.
The think tank has issued its overnight analysis of Rachel Reeves’s budget, which shows that pre-election austerity and tax rises are both pencilled in.
And while those back-loaded tax rises are large (bringing in £26bn), extra spending kicking in sooner, so UK debt is on track to be higher than forecast in March.
Notably, Resolution Foundation also find that less wealthy families would be better off if the chancellor had simply broken her manifesto pledges and raised income tax, rather than simply freezing the thresholds for longer and relying on ‘fiscal drag’ to take more tax off people as their wages rise.
Ruth Curtice, chief executive of the Resolution Foundation, says:
“The Chancellor needed to clear three crucial hurdles in her Budget – to ease cost of living pressures, tax smartly and repair the public finances.
“The Chancellor was front-footed – and front-loaded – on cost of living support. Over half a million larger families will get a major income boost next spring, while typical energy bills will be cut by around £130 annually for the next three years, though support then fades away.
“Sensible tax reforms will also help to level up the tax treatment of income. But, ironically, sticking to her manifesto tax pledge has cost millions of low-to-middle earners, who would have been better off with their tax rates rising than their thresholds being frozen.
“By more than doubling the headroom against her fiscal rules, the Chancellor has taken steps to repair the public finances, too. But appearances can be deceiving. Debt is up and most of the fiscal repair job has been put on hold for three years.
“One hurdle that remains to be cleared is boosting growth – which has been downgraded by the OBR, along with the outlook for living standards. Until that challenge is taken on, we can expect plenty more bracing Budgets.”
The agenda
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9am GMT: Resolution Foundation event: ‘what the budget means for the public, financial markets and the cost of living’
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10am GMT: Eurozone economic sentiment index
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10:30am – 12:00pm GMT: IFS to present its analysis of the budget
Key events
Pound at one-month high after budget
The pound has inched up to a one-month high against the US dollar, as City traders react to yesterday’s budget announcement.
Sterling traded as high as $1.3268 early this morning, the highest since 29 October, adding to yesterday’s gains.
There’s general relief in the markets that Rachel Reeves doubled her headroom to hit her fiscal rule for a balanced current budget in 2029-30, from £9.9bn to almost £22bn. That pushed down UK borrowing costs yesterday.
That lowers the risk of being knocked off course by events, and could shore up Reeves and Keir Starmer’s positions.
Andrew Wishart, economist at Berenberg explains that political risk has been lowered:
Taking the chance offered by a helpful official forecast to avoid hard decisions has increased the Chancellor’s and Prime Minister’s chance of political survival.
The fall in yields and strengthening of the pound is probably more due to the waning of political risk rather than any changes to official forecasts or the policy package.”
We also have budget analysis from research institute NIESR (the National Institute of Economic and Social Research) to digest.
They identify that freezing the income tax thresholds until the end of the decade will fall on poorer workers the most (a point also made by Resolution Foundation this morning).
[Reminder: higher-rate threshold and additional-rate threshold are to be frozen at £12,570, £50,270 and £125,140, respectively until 2030].
NIESR also critises the ‘lack of economic vision’ in the budget:
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Today’s Budget locks in a high-tax, high-debt steady state in a world of low productivity growth and higher interest rates. Even the historically large tax share of GDP now planned is only just enough to stabilise – not reduce – a debt ratio stuck around 100 per cent of GDP for the foreseeable future.
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Macroeconomically, the Budget implies a modest fiscal tightening over the forecast. Fiscal policy shifts from being a tailwind to a headwind for growth. Inflation is expected to be 0.3 pp lower over the next year, reflecting energy-related measures and the fuel duty freeze extension. The key question is whether the Bank of England chooses to look through this price effect or views it as altering the underlying inflation profile.
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Distributionally, the extension of the income tax threshold freeze to 2030 will fall disproportionately on the bottom half of the income distribution.
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Despite being the second Budget of this government’s term, there was a notable lack of economic vision beyond clearing fiscal hurdles. Reforms to the triple lock, council tax, and VAT were pushed into the background while the Chancellor focused – justifiably – on meeting the fiscal rules. Even then, the £22bn of fiscal headroom is not large, and the probability of meeting the fiscal rules remains, in essence, a coin toss.
Resolution Foundation’s overnight analysis: the key points
Here are the key points from Resolution Foundation’s overnight analysis:
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Poorer working age families protected most, richer pensioners spared the worst. Policies announced in this Parliament have been progressive, particularly for working-age households. The poorest half of families have gained £90 a year on average, compared to losses of £1,000 for the richest half. It was less progressive for pensioners however, with the poorest half losing £220 on average, while the richest half lost £680.
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The manifesto tax pledge has cost working people... Having previously hinted at raising Income Tax rates, the Chancellor chose instead to freeze personal tax thresholds for three more years. But raising all rates by 1p would have been less costly than freezing thresholds for anyone with an income below £35,000. Indeed, all but the top ten per cent of the income distribution are worse off because of opting for threshold freezes over rate rises (which raise similar amounts of revenue).
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…But abolishing the two-child limit helps working families. Three-in-five families set to benefit from its scrapping include at least one person in work. Overall, 560,000 families will gain an average of £5,310 in 2029-30.
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Pre-election austerity has been pencilled in… The departmental spending cuts announced in 2029-30, coupled with the Government’s commitment to raise health and defence spending and protect per pupil school funding, imply £6.4 billion of cuts to other departments like the Home Office, Justice and local government. Cuts of this nature would be equivalent to 88 per cent of the average annual cuts made during the austerity years (2009-10 to 2018-19).
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…As have pre-election tax rises. Nearly three-quarters of the £77 billion of extra tax over the next five years (2026-27 to 2030-31) is coming after April 2029, with £26 billion in 2029-30 alone.
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Debt is being driven up, not down. Reducing the country’s debt was cited as one of the Chancellor’s key priorities. But debt is rising over the forecast, and higher than forecast in March. For example, Public Sector Net Financial Liabilities (PSNLF) is rising as a share of GDP over this Parliament – from 81.3 per cent in 2024-25 to 83.7 per cent in 2028-29, before falling to 82.2 per cent in 2030-31.
Introduction: UK’s fiscal repair job not complete after budget
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
It’s the morning after the budget, a time when the real story behind the fiscal event often emerges.
And today, the Resolution Foundation is warning that the job of repairing the UK’s public finance is “far from complete”, and that major tax rises and cuts to public services are coming down the line.
The think tank has issued its overnight analysis of Rachel Reeves’s budget, which shows that pre-election austerity and tax rises are both pencilled in.
And while those back-loaded tax rises are large (bringing in £26bn), extra spending kicking in sooner, so UK debt is on track to be higher than forecast in March.
Notably, Resolution Foundation also find that less wealthy families would be better off if the chancellor had simply broken her manifesto pledges and raised income tax, rather than simply freezing the thresholds for longer and relying on ‘fiscal drag’ to take more tax off people as their wages rise.
Ruth Curtice, chief executive of the Resolution Foundation, says:
“The Chancellor needed to clear three crucial hurdles in her Budget – to ease cost of living pressures, tax smartly and repair the public finances.
“The Chancellor was front-footed – and front-loaded – on cost of living support. Over half a million larger families will get a major income boost next spring, while typical energy bills will be cut by around £130 annually for the next three years, though support then fades away.
“Sensible tax reforms will also help to level up the tax treatment of income. But, ironically, sticking to her manifesto tax pledge has cost millions of low-to-middle earners, who would have been better off with their tax rates rising than their thresholds being frozen.
“By more than doubling the headroom against her fiscal rules, the Chancellor has taken steps to repair the public finances, too. But appearances can be deceiving. Debt is up and most of the fiscal repair job has been put on hold for three years.
“One hurdle that remains to be cleared is boosting growth – which has been downgraded by the OBR, along with the outlook for living standards. Until that challenge is taken on, we can expect plenty more bracing Budgets.”
The agenda
-
9am GMT: Resolution Foundation event: ‘what the budget means for the public, financial markets and the cost of living’
-
10am GMT: Eurozone economic sentiment index
-
10:30am – 12:00pm GMT: IFS to present its analysis of the budget
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