Introduction: Oil hits two-month high as Trump says countries doing business with Iran face 25% tariff
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
Oil has hit its highest level in almost two months this morning, after Donald Trump theatened new tariffs on any country doing business with Iran.
In a post on Truth Social on Monday, the US president declared:
Effective immediately, any Country doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran will pay a Tariff of 25% on any and all business being done with the United States of America. This Order is final and conclusive. Thank you for your attention to this matter!
Top export destinations for Iranian goods include China, the United Arab Emirates and India, so this could reignite Trump’s smouldering trade war.
The threat came as Iranian auhorities crack down on nationwide protests; as of this morning, at least 648 people have been killed by Iran’s security services and more than 10,600 have been arrested.
Iran is one of the biggest producers of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, so any escalation could disrupt oil supply or add a geopolitical risk premium.
Brent crude has climbed to $64.46 a barrel this morning, its highest level since 19 November.
A week ago Brent fell below $60/barrel, when investors were pondering the prospect of increased crude supply from Venezuela.
Analysts at Barclays have calculated that the unrest in Iran has added about $3-4/barrel in geopolitical risk premium in oil prices.
The agenda
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10am GMT: Lords Industry and Regulators Committee to examine relationship between regulators and economic growth
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1.30pm GMT: US inflation report for December
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2.30pm GMT: World Bank updated economic forecasts published – 14.30 embargo, online presser 13.30 – p26 growth forecasts – World economy downgraded from 2.7% forecast growth to 2.4% this year, with US downgraded from 2% to 1.6%
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3pm GMT: Richard Hughes, former chair of the UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility, to appears before House of Lords economic affairs committee
Key events
US crude oil is also climbing this morning.
US West Texas Intermediate crude rose to $60/barrel this morning, for the first time in over a month.
ING commodities strategists said today:
“The price increase comes amid intensifying protests in Iran, raising the possibility of some form of intervention by the U.S.”
Trump: WE’RE SCREWED if we lose supreme court tariff case
Speaking of tariffs…. Donald Trump has also claimed that the US would be “screwed” if the supreme court does not uphold his trade levies.
In a post last night, Trump claimed the US would have to repay “many Hundreds of Billions of Dollars” if the US highest court rules against the White House, plus the “payback” which companies building factories in America to avoid tariffs would – he argues – demand.
Trump wrote:
When these Investments are added, we are talking about Trillions of Dollars! It would be a complete mess, and almost impossible for our Country to pay. Anybody who says that it can be quickly and easily done would be making a false, inaccurate, or totally misunderstood answer to this very large and complex question.
In a dramatic twist, Trump concluded:
Remember, when America shines brightly, the World shines brightly. In other words, if the Supreme Court rules against the United States of America on this National Security bonanza, WE’RE SCREWED!
[Reminder: tariffs are paid by US companies when they import goods]
The Supreme Court could rule as soon as tomorrow on Trump’s tariffs. Last November, they expressed some scepticism of the legal basis of the Trump administration’s sweeping global tariff regime, pointing out that Congress is in charge of taxes.
Introduction: Oil hits two-month high as Trump says countries doing business with Iran face 25% tariff
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
Oil has hit its highest level in almost two months this morning, after Donald Trump theatened new tariffs on any country doing business with Iran.
In a post on Truth Social on Monday, the US president declared:
Effective immediately, any Country doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran will pay a Tariff of 25% on any and all business being done with the United States of America. This Order is final and conclusive. Thank you for your attention to this matter!
Top export destinations for Iranian goods include China, the United Arab Emirates and India, so this could reignite Trump’s smouldering trade war.
The threat came as Iranian auhorities crack down on nationwide protests; as of this morning, at least 648 people have been killed by Iran’s security services and more than 10,600 have been arrested.
Iran is one of the biggest producers of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, so any escalation could disrupt oil supply or add a geopolitical risk premium.
Brent crude has climbed to $64.46 a barrel this morning, its highest level since 19 November.
A week ago Brent fell below $60/barrel, when investors were pondering the prospect of increased crude supply from Venezuela.
Analysts at Barclays have calculated that the unrest in Iran has added about $3-4/barrel in geopolitical risk premium in oil prices.
The agenda
-
10am GMT: Lords Industry and Regulators Committee to examine relationship between regulators and economic growth
-
1.30pm GMT: US inflation report for December
-
2.30pm GMT: World Bank updated economic forecasts published – 14.30 embargo, online presser 13.30 – p26 growth forecasts – World economy downgraded from 2.7% forecast growth to 2.4% this year, with US downgraded from 2% to 1.6%
-
3pm GMT: Richard Hughes, former chair of the UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility, to appears before House of Lords economic affairs committee
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